Fundamental Questions

🧐
A trade is placed when you’ve assessed all possibilities and believe strongly that this move has the highest probability chance of netting a profit. Any analysis or intuition is pressure-tested by fundamental questions ascertaining the collective psychology of traders participating in the trade: new traders looking to enter a position, traders in an existing position, and those looking to exit. These fundamental questions were posed by the late, great Mark Douglas. 🙏🏻🪦

What kind of price action will sustain the buyer’s beliefs that they can make more money?

In day trading, various price actions can sustain buyers' beliefs that they can make more money. Here are several reasons or scenarios that might encourage buyers to believe in the potential for profit:

  1. Strong Uptrend: A sustained and clearly defined uptrend with higher highs and higher lows can attract buyers. It indicates the potential for further price appreciation.
  2. Breakout: When a stock or asset breaks out above a key resistance level or a technical pattern (e.g., a chart pattern like a bull flag), it can generate buyer interest as it suggests potential for an upward price move.
  3. Volume Confirmation: High trading volume accompanying an uptrend or breakout can indicate strong buyer interest and provide confidence in the trend's sustainability.
  4. Positive News: Positive news, such as earnings beats, product launches, or favorable economic indicators, can attract buyers and sustain their belief in the stock's potential.
  5. Catalyst Events: Events like mergers and acquisitions, FDA approvals (for biotech stocks), or significant partnerships can create buying opportunities and sustained optimism.
  6. Intraday Momentum: Consistent intraday price momentum, where the stock is consistently making higher highs and higher lows during the trading day, can encourage buyers to stay engaged.
  7. Technical Indicators: Bullish signals from technical indicators like Moving Averages, Relative Strength Index (RSI), and MACD can reinforce buyer confidence.
  8. Market Sentiment: Positive market sentiment and an overall bullish market environment can encourage buyers to stay active and optimistic about their trades.
  9. Volume Profile: A concentration of traded volume at a particular price level can act as a support or resistance area. Buyers may believe that such levels can provide profitable trading opportunities.
  10. Price Patterns: Recognizable and reliable chart patterns like "cup and handle," "double bottom," or "head and shoulders" can attract buyers when they form.
  11. Liquidity: A liquid market with narrow spreads and high trading volumes can make it easier for buyers to enter and exit positions, contributing to their confidence.
  12. Trading Strategies: Confirmation of successful execution of specific trading strategies, like scalping or momentum trading, can reinforce the belief in potential profits.
  13. Reduced Volatility: Buyers may feel more confident when price volatility stabilizes, making it easier to predict price movements.

Day traders often look for specific chart and candlestick patterns to make trading decisions. Here are some common patterns that traders might consider:

  1. Bullish and Bearish Engulfing Patterns:
    • Bullish Engulfing: Occurs when a smaller bearish candle is followed by a larger bullish candle, indicating a potential reversal.
    • Bearish Engulfing: The opposite, with a smaller bullish candle followed by a larger bearish candle, suggesting a potential reversal.
  2. Hammer and Inverted Hammer:
    • Hammer: A small candle with a long lower shadow and a small real body at the upper end, signaling potential bullish reversal.
    • Inverted Hammer: Similar to a hammer, but at the bottom of a downtrend, indicating potential bullish reversal.
  3. Doji:
    • A candle with the opening and closing prices nearly equal, signaling market indecision. Depending on its location within a trend, it can indicate potential reversals.
  4. Morning and Evening Star:
    • Morning Star: A bullish reversal pattern consisting of a large bearish candle, a doji or small candle, and a large bullish candle.
    • Evening Star: The bearish counterpart, signaling potential reversals.
  5. Head and Shoulders:
    • A trend reversal pattern with three peaks, the middle one being the highest (head), and the other two as shoulders. A break of the neckline can signal a trend reversal.
  6. Cup and Handle:
    • A bullish continuation pattern that resembles a teacup, followed by a smaller consolidation (handle). A breakout from the handle suggests further upward movement.
  7. Double Top and Double Bottom:
    • Double Top: A bearish reversal pattern with two peaks at a similar price level.
    • Double Bottom: A bullish reversal pattern with two troughs at a similar price level.
  8. Flag and Pennant:
    • Flag: A rectangular pattern that slopes against the prevailing trend, signaling a brief consolidation before the trend continues.
    • Pennant: Similar to a flag but characterized by a small symmetrical triangle.
  9. Gaps:
    • Gaps can indicate strong price movement. Common types include:
      • Breakaway Gap: Signals the start of a new trend.
      • Runaway Gap: Occurs in the middle of a trend and reinforces the existing trend.
      • Exhaustion Gap: Occurs near the end of a trend, suggesting a potential trend reversal.
  10. Trendlines and Channels:

These patterns are just a starting point for technical analysis. Traders often use a combination of patterns, along with other indicators and tools, to make informed trading decisions. It's essential to practice and gain experience in recognizing these patterns and understanding their context within the market. Additionally, risk management and discipline are crucial aspects of successful day trading.

When are sellers likely to come into the market in force?

Sellers are likely to come into the market in force at various points and for different reasons. Here are some common situations when sellers may become more active:

  1. Resistance Levels: Sellers often become active at key resistance levels, where the price has historically struggled to move higher. These levels can be based on technical analysis, such as previous highs, moving averages, or trendlines.
  2. Overbought Conditions: When an asset is considered overbought, based on indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI), sellers may step in to take profits, anticipating a potential price correction.
  3. Negative News: Negative news or events related to a company, industry, or the broader market can prompt selling as investors react to the information.
  4. Earnings Reports: After a company releases disappointing earnings results or provides a pessimistic outlook, sellers may take action, causing a stock to decline.
  5. Economic Data: Poor economic data or unexpected economic events can lead to market-wide selling, as investors worry about the overall health of the economy.
  6. Geopolitical Events: Events like political instability, conflicts, or trade tensions can create uncertainty and trigger selling.
  7. Profit-Taking: After a stock or asset has seen a significant price increase, some investors may decide to take profits, resulting in selling pressure.
  8. Technical Breakdowns: If a stock breaks below key support levels or significant technical patterns, it can trigger selling as traders anticipate further declines.
  9. Liquidity Concerns: Low trading volumes or liquidity in a particular asset can sometimes trigger sharp price declines, as a lack of buyers can make it difficult to exit positions without substantial losses.
  10. Lack of Confidence: A loss of confidence in the market or a specific asset can lead to widespread selling, as investors and traders seek to minimize their exposure to perceived risks.
  11. Market Sentiment Shift: A shift in market sentiment, from bullish to bearish, can lead to a surge in selling as participants react to changing conditions and expectations.
  12. Stop-Loss Orders: Automated trading strategies, including stop-loss orders, can lead to rapid selling if certain price levels are breached.

It's important to note that the timing and magnitude of selling can vary widely based on the specific circumstances and market conditions. Successful traders and investors monitor a combination of factors, including technical analysis, fundamental analysis, and market sentiment, to make informed decisions about when to buy or sell. Risk management strategies are crucial to protect against unexpected and adverse market movements.

When day trading, traders often look for specific chart and candlestick patterns to make trading decisions. Here are some common patterns that day traders frequently consider:

  1. Bullish and Bearish Engulfing Patterns:
    • Bullish Engulfing: A small bearish candle is followed by a larger bullish candle, indicating a potential reversal to the upside.
    • Bearish Engulfing: The opposite, with a small bullish candle followed by a larger bearish candle, suggesting a potential reversal to the downside.
  2. Hammer and Inverted Hammer:
    • Hammer: A small candle with a long lower shadow and a small real body at the upper end, signaling a potential bullish reversal.
    • Inverted Hammer: Similar to a hammer but typically appears at the bottom of a downtrend, indicating potential bullish reversal.
  3. Doji:
    • A candle with the opening and closing prices nearly equal, signaling market indecision. Depending on its location within a trend, it can indicate potential reversals.
  4. Morning and Evening Star:
    • Morning Star: A bullish reversal pattern consisting of a large bearish candle, a doji or small candle, and a large bullish candle.
    • Evening Star: The bearish counterpart, signaling potential reversals.
  5. Head and Shoulders:
    • A trend reversal pattern with three peaks, the middle one being the highest (head), and the other two as shoulders. A break of the neckline can signal a trend reversal.
  6. Cup and Handle:
    • A bullish continuation pattern that resembles a teacup, followed by a smaller consolidation (handle). A breakout from the handle suggests further upward movement.
  7. Double Top and Double Bottom:
    • Double Top: A bearish reversal pattern with two peaks at a similar price level.
    • Double Bottom: A bullish reversal pattern with two troughs at a similar price level.
  8. Flag and Pennant:
    • Flag: A rectangular pattern that slopes against the prevailing trend, signaling a brief consolidation before the trend continues.
    • Pennant: Similar to a flag but characterized by a small symmetrical triangle.
  9. Gaps:
    • Gaps can indicate strong price movement. Common types include:
      • Breakaway Gap: Signals the start of a new trend.
      • Runaway Gap: Occurs in the middle of a trend and reinforces the existing trend.
      • Exhaustion Gap: Occurs near the end of a trend, suggesting a potential trend reversal.
  10. Trendlines and Channels:

These patterns are part of technical analysis and can provide valuable insights when used in combination with other indicators and tools. Keep in mind that no single pattern is foolproof, and risk management is essential in day trading to mitigate potential losses. Additionally, the effectiveness of these patterns can vary depending on market conditions and timeframes.