Trades

** This is taking the average profit per trade relative to the average loss. So a $5K profit and a $5K loss is a 1.0 score. A $5K profit and a $2.5K loss is a 2.0 score and a $2.5K profit and a $5K loss is a 0.5 score.

Market Hypotheses

The market will create a support zone at $420 SPY

Reason

We had some bounces on the $420 daily chart 6 times in the past 6 months. First time was a resistance but the second time it pierced through for a strong breakout. The third and fourth times proved to strengthen the support by the fifth time it proved to be weak. This 6th time will make or break this as a support or resistance but my hypothesis is that this will be a line of support.

Result ✅

The market coupled with good news proved my hypothesis to be right. The SPY went as high as $436, a $16 increase over the support line.

Trade Hypotheses

11/3 → NVDA long at $439

Reason

NVDA is higher in the pre-market hours than yesterday’s highs. I hypothesize a good entry would be a retracement that bounces back to yesterday’s highs at a $439 entry.

Result ✅

NVDA took off today as did the semiconductor stocks.

11/3 → FUBO long at $2.75

Reason

FUBO just announced strong Q3 results and the market is trending upwards. The pre-market trade price is higher than yesterday’s highs, making this a good stock to go long on.

Result ✅

$2.75 would have been a great entry with massive gains, however I entered the stock too early as the market was dipping (in the first 5 minutes). I was left holding a $2.95 and $3.06 position for most of the day and closed them both at losses. Had I held on they would have also been winners.

11/3 → BAC long at $27.75

Reason

BAC is within the Financial sectors which has been on a major uptrend. The market is also trending upwards off of news that the Treasury yields extended their drop after the softer-than-expected jobs report. The pre-market trade price is higher than yesterday’s highs, making this a good stock to go long on.

Result ✅

Technically the long analysis was accurate, but BAC never retraced, offering no opportunity for an entry. It seemed too hot from the beginning so I avoided this trade.

11/3 → AFRM long at $21

Reason

AFRM is a good buy for the same exact reason as BAC above.

Result ✅

Similar to BAC, this would have been a good long play but it never retraced to the $21 mark. I ended up taking long positions at $22.81 right as the stock began to tank. I held on for as long as I could but was uncomfortable with the position size I took, as it prevented me from playing other stocks. So I sold them at a $0.46 and $0.34 loss.

11/3 → SQ long at $48

Reason

SQ for the same reasons as BAC & AFRM.

Result ❌

While this stock closed above my projected entry, it never retraced to the $48 mark. Plus, it was a short play rather than my predicted long so this was a bust.

11/1 → AMD long at $99

Reason

In yesterday’s post-market hours earnings were announced and beat Q3 earnings by $0.02. While there was massive some sell-off that occurred, the price rebounded and then dipped before picking back up in the pre-market hours of today. I hypothesize a $99 entry as soon as we get a pullback.

Result ✅

That entry would have been worthwhile had we actually had a pullback, but the stock kept on skyrocketing for the first 90 minutes with no pullbacks. I decided to enter the trade at $101.86 but quickly sold it off at a $0.34 gain, which in hindsight was too reactive. My fear was that the stock would suddenly have a strong pullback, which it in fact did not.

11/1 → TSLA long at $203

Reason

We had some pullback in yesterday’s post-market hours then an immediate spit up towards the $205 mark. If the market trends upwards and we have our pullback, I hypothesize that $203 would be the correct entry, since that exceeds the highs of the day before.

Result ❌

Once we hit our $203 price target, it was clear that Tesla was behaving against the market dynamics on its own downtrend. Took a fairly large loss.

11/1 → SOXL long at $15.08

Reason

SOXL is the Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3x Shares ETF — when all semiconductor stocks in the ETF go up, it amplifies it by 3X. Once I knew that the market was bullish for the day, I decided to go long at any point I can get. $15.08 was the entry I could find but my hypothesis was that it would continue to go long.

Result ✅

As the market improved, so did SOXL. I was able to take profits at $15.08, $15.36, $15.37, and $15.38 but once I entered the trade at $15.45, it was over extended and ate some of my profits. I ended up taking massive share sizes.

Trade Studies

V-shaped bets

I held onto a massive position on 11/2 that resulted in me being heavily squeezed by the market for over 3 hours. I took any exit I can get. In hindsight, the stock had every reason to trend upwards: the market was trending up, the spike was based on a strong Q3 earnings — it’s moments like these when I must realize that the institutional investors are intentionally squeezing traders like myself. Reason being: the stock was one of the highest volume stocks of the day and with a low price point, incredibly attractive to all types of investors. They let traders get overly excited and commit to long positions and then squeeze everyone dry.

Volume as a sell-off signal

NVDA was overly extended on 11/3 which had me worried the uptrend was going to break at some point. It sustained itself for most of the day due to market being strongly bullish, but I was squeezed out of a long position at the $452.80 price because of a sell-off. At first I thought these were false sell-offs, but what should have been a signal that this sell-off was real were the two spikes in volume, one larger than the other. With it being a Friday and the last hour of the day, I should have sensed this as being the end of the week sell off for traders who were looking to rid themselves of their positions.

Analysis

NVDA

Stock Analysis

• Sector → Information Technology
• Industry → Semiconductor & Semiconductor Equipment
• Country → USA 🇺🇸
• Exchange → NASDAQ
• Market Cap → $1.02T
• Enterprise Value → $995M
• P/E Ratio → 99.43
• Float → 2.37B
• Outstanding Shares → 2.47B
• Est. Net Cash/Share → -$2.44
• EPS → $4.14

News

• Stock dropped 5% on 10/31 because they will have to cancel up to $5 billion worth of advanced chip orders to China in compliance with new U.S. government restrictions.

Technical Indicators

• The daily chart is showing an important support level around $400-$409. It was recently breached on 10/26 and on 10/30 it went above the support zone as it naturally floated with the market, however the news about its relations with China on 10/31 has caused it to potentially turn the support zone into a resistance zone.
• RSI is currently around 39, which can indicate this stock is starting to be oversold

• The 5-minute candles on the 2 day chart are showing the trend on 10/31 as rising above the VWAP
• RSI is currently around 53 and trending down, which indicates this may be a good point to begin buying

Trades Made

• We entered the trade at $397.64 and at $398.09 because those values were already above the VWAP, the TIC.N market was positive and accruing in value.