Trades
Date | Profit | Win Rate | PL Score** | Long | Short |
11/13 | ✅ Overall gain | 100% | 1.0 | - NVDA → $0.43/share gain | N/A |
11/14 | ✅ Overall gain | 85% | 0.17 | - META → $0.40/share loss
- SOXL → $0.12/share loss
- AMZN → $0.19/share gain
- COIN → $0.12/share gain
- TSLA → $0.12/share loss
- NVDA → $0.10/share loss
- AFRM → $0.02/share gain | - TSLA → $0.16/share gain
- NVDA → $0.23/share gain
- AFRM → $0.19/share gain |
11/15 | ❌ Overall loss | 66% | 0.31 | - BABA → $0.44/share gain
- SPY → $0.03/share gain
- TGT → $0.13/share loss
- SOXL → $0.05/share gain
- NVDA → $1.57/share loss
- TSLA → $0.27/share gain | - DIS → $0.12/share gain
- NVDA → $0.01/share loss
- TSLA → $0.09/share loss |
11/16 | ✅ Overall gain | 75% | 0.47 | - WMT → $0.40/share loss
- SOXL → $0.01/share gain
- NVDA → $0.47/share gain | - WMT → $0.67/share loss
- TSLA → $0.29/share gain
- CSCO → $0.04/share gain
- BABA → $0.18/share gain
- NVDA → $0.15/share loss |
11/17 | ✅ Overall gain | 100% | 1.0 | - NVDA → $0.94/share gain | N/A |
** This is taking the average profit per trade relative to the average loss. So a $5K profit and a $5K loss is a 1.0 score. A $5K profit and a $2.5K loss is a 2.0 score and a $2.5K profit and a $5K loss is a 0.5 score.
Market Hypotheses
11/15 | Market will continue to be bullish
Reason
PPI reports were released and showed the sharpest decline in top-line U.S. wholesale inflation since April 2020.
Result ✅
While the trend wasn’t strongly bullish, it still continued with green candles until the end of the week. The momentum here is clear on the daily chart.
Trade Hypotheses
11/15 | TGT long at $124.50 → $126.20
Reason
Target reported positive earnings, the stock is up +13% in the pre-market hours.
I anticipate $124.50 because this was the last significant high that acted as a resistance zone. Above this and I think we can feel confident pursuing this stock, albeit I will wait until the RSI value is below 70.
Result ✅
TGT was fully extended from the beginning and we couldn’t enter at our entry. However the stock continued to rip even as the market went up then immediately down. Ultimately the good earnings report was a strong enough catalyst for this stock to continue its trajectory.
11/15 | DIS long at $92.50
Reason
Result ✅
Technically we did continue above $92.50, except that the stock never retraced to that level. However the price stayed above the VWAP the whole day and while it was trading sideways, was still more promising on the bullish trend.
Trade Studies
Ignoring stop losses will obliterate your profits
On 11/15/23, I took a hasty trade in NVDA with a $497.42 entry. I was then squeezed out so much that I sold at its local lows at $487.91. I had a few wrong assumptions about this stock:
- That the stock can’t possible continue to tank, it has to retrace at some point → Not true, NVDA was over-extended on so many consecutive days, reaching new highs at $500+. The reality is that this stock needed a breather before continuing on its uptrend and I should have not bought the stock as it was down trending.
- I could enforce my will onto the market → The market does not care how deep in the hole you are, and stocks like NVDA were trading against the SPY for the first hour of the day. With a stock that has no rhyme nor reason, this should have been a stock to avoid from the beginning.
Ultimately, the key learning lesson here is, when entering a trade you MUST DEFINE A STOP LOSS. Regardless of whether you will think that you may miss the trade, it is better to miss the trade than to suffer deep losses. Even when you’re being squeezed, it’s better to feel “wronged” by the market and get fully squeezed rather than inevitably accepting a gigantic loss. If you have neither the capital nor the nerves to withstand a squeeze, then bette to accept the loss and the fact that you aren’t willing to play that game with the market.