Trades

** This is taking the average profit per trade relative to the average loss. So a $5K profit and a $5K loss is a 1.0 score. A $5K profit and a $2.5K loss is a 2.0 score and a $2.5K profit and a $5K loss is a 0.5 score.

Daily Manifests

Market Hypotheses

12/11 | Market continues on a bullish trend

Reason

The market broke an important resistance level at $459 - $460. If by 12/12 the bullish trend continues, I suspect we are seeing a bullish flag formation appear that will carry us on a rally until the end of the year.

Result ✅

Sector Hypotheses

12/12 | Information Technology sector will continue on a bullish trend till the end of the week

Reason

The Information Technology sector (.GSPT) tested an important resistance zone, piercing through and making it a support zone. With the recent indication that the Feds may increase interest rates in May 2024 rather than March 2024, I believe this trend will continue forward until the end of the week.

Result ✅

Trade Hypotheses

12/13 | TSLA bearish past $234.30

Reason

There are two reasons TSLA’s stock is down as of pre-market hours on 12/13:

• TSLA will be recalling more than 2 million cars over autopilot safety concerns
• TSLA announced their Model 3 RWD and Long Range vehicles will no longer qualify for a $7,500 federal tax credit starting 12/31

I placed my entry below yesterday’s low in order to confirm that there will be no opportunistic buyers who may push the price back up prematurely

Result ✅

12/13 | NVDA bullish past $476.69

Reason

NVDA has tested this support zone from November 22 - November 30, when it broke through and it became a resistance zone. The resistance zone was tested multiple times from December 7 - December 12 and is showing signs of breaking past this to become a support zone again. This will depend on the PPI report and if it does, I will enter a long position.

Result ✅

12/12 | INTC bullish past $45

Reason

INTC has been trending upwards with the market but recently had a sizable spike, closely approaching the $45 resistance level over the last 6 months.

You can also see above that INTC has been trading above both the 8EMA and 10EMA lines, giving me a signal that this can continue on a bullish trend. My only concern is that it has 1 candle that is above those lines.

Result ❌

On the morning of 12/12, the stock began a large sell-off with a huge red candle in the first five minutes. The stock did a minor retracement but never had the change to hit the $45 mark. Even with a bullish market today, it failed to ride the wave, making me think that $45 is now a resistance zone that may get tested again.

12/12 | AFRM bearish below $38.66

Reason

AFRM has had a very strong bullish trend since the beginning of November. However the stock appears to be over-extended and might be pulling back. The RSI indicator on the daily is at 75.84 which confirms this, and if you look at 12/06, we had a topping tail which would have been an indication of the trend ending, but the stock extended to the high of where it was rejected, only to then be rejected the following day 11/11. I think this second candle is a confirmation of a bearish signal and plan to go short.

My entry will be $38.66 because this was an important support zone over the past two days. If it breaks this support zone, it will act as a resistance zone that will push me to double down on my position if it hits the $36.50 mark.

Result ❌

I was able to take my profits by shorting AFRM when it went under $38.66. However while it tested that support zone, it proved to be a support zone. At 13:00 EST the stock tested that value as a support zone and held above that value. It is possible AFRM can continue to go higher.

Trade Studies

12/12 | COIN long at $139.77 | Jumping the gun without fully validating direction

While adhering to the advice of another trader, I entered a long position for COIN at $139.77. I immediately got stomped out of my position with a $1.23/share loss within 90 seconds. Here is where I think I went wrong:

• I jumped to enter the position too soon. The market was still formulating a stance, which in retrospect needed another 10 minutes (15 minutes into market open) before deciding its trajectory. You can see from the chart below that SPY, while it was still trending down, wasn’t necessarily ready to become bullish (it wasn’t even one, green 1-minute candle formed yet).

• I enforced my will onto the market. COIN was below the VWAP and I was looking to go long. RSI was just coming down from +70, there were many signs that this wasn’t a viable trade to make in that moment, and yet I ignored them all.

12/15 | ENPH long at $123.64 & $122.46 | Leveraging Bollinger Bands to avoid preemptive positions

On 12/15 I entered two long positions with ENPH prematurely:

• $123.64 @ 7:31:58 MST
• $122.46 @ 7:35:06 MST

Looking back, this wasn’t a wise decision but after applying Bollinger Bands, I see that I could have avoided this trade. Not that Bollinger Bands (or any indicator for that matter is a definitive crystal ball, but it could at least strengthen good hypotheses or at a minimum, avoid stupid entries in positions.

Looking at my first long position, I was at the top of the Bollinger Band, which could have been a strong indicator that the stock is more likely to revert to the mean (middle band) than anything. You can see the same thing with the second position I entered, going long in any position above the middle band isn’t worthwhile and to be extra cautious, taking a long position only after it bounces from the bottom Bollinger Band is a safer bet.